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Future demand in care homes for the over 65s

There are currently around 1,500 people aged 65 and over in Herefordshire living in either a local authority or privately funded care home. Work to model the projected demand for care home over the next 20 years was commissioned by Herefordshire Council's Adult Social Care services.

These projections of the number of care home places needed in Herefordshire take into account expected demographic changes.

The need for care home beds for those aged 65 and over, whether self-funded by the client or by Herefordshire Council, is projected to increase by around 70% over the next 20-years. Facing this additional pressure on services, in the face of an ageing population, the Herefordshire Market Position Statement 2020-2025 (MPS) states, “This increase is simply not affordable or practical and social care will focus on alternative pathways particularly into residential care and for those with a learning disability will seek to be supported in alternative accommodation provision”.

The total need for care home beds for people aged under 65 will remain at around 500 people over the next 20 years.

An estimated 40% of beds are funded by Herefordshire Council. In the absence of any other information, the projections assume this will remain the same. HC-funded beds are more likely to be residential than nursing (60:40), whilst non HC-funded are equally split.

An estimated 70% of care home residents aged 65 and over have some form of dementia.  As potential demand increases for people aged 65 and over, so will the numbers of people living with dementia. In October 2014, the Care Quality Commission (CQC) found that whilst many care homes deliver excellent care nationally, some care homes did not comprehensively identify all of a person’s care needs.