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Future demand in care homes for the over 65s

There are currently around 1,500 people aged 65 and over in Herefordshire living in either a local authority or privately funded care home. Work to model the projected demand for care home beds up to the year 2036 was commissioned by Herefordshire Council's Adult Social Care services.

These projections of the number of care home places needed in Herefordshire take into account expected demographic changes, a summary of the main findings are -

The total requirement will increase from 1,550 in 2016 to 1,800 in 2021 (+250; 3% per year), and to 2,900 by 2036 (+1,350; 5% per year). Existing planning applications would deliver almost 2,000 by 2019.

An estimated 40% of beds in 2016 were funded by Herefordshire Council. In the absence of any other information, the projections assume this will remain the same. HC-funded beds are more likely to be residential than nursing (60:40), whilst non HC-funded are equally split.

As of 2016, 56% of care home beds were residential and 44% were nursing. Changes in the age structure alone would suggest that the proportion of nursing home beds will need to increase slightly in future.

The proportion of people living with dementia in a Herefordshire care home is predicted to increase from 77 to 79%; with the number almost doubling from 1,200 in 2016 to 2,300 in 2036.

Just over a third of all care homes (36%) are located in the Hereford & surrounds area, just under a quarter (23%) are located in each of the north and south Herefordshire areas and just under a fifth were located in the east Herefordshire area.